Kevin McCarthy spent nine months as Speaker of the House, facing the challenge of holding onto his position while grappling with internal divisions within his party. Despite his title, he often found himself scrambling to maintain his power as he navigated a volatile political landscape.
In just four months of assuming power, Speaker Mike Johnson has achieved something that was once considered unimaginable: he has made McCarthy appear as a skilled strategist and a Housemaster.
In recent days, I have conducted interviews with various Republicans from different House factions, including those who support Johnson and those who were never fully on board with his rise. These interviews have shed light on a speaker who appears to be improvising when it comes to important matters of strategy, messaging, and even basic vote counting.
McCarthy nostalgia has emerged as a new trend, fueled by disappointment over Johnson’s perceived lack of control over the speaker’s gavel.
According to a senior Republican lawmaker, Kevin is known for his strategic approach and his ability to shop around for the best options before making a decision. However, when it comes to Johnson, it seems apparent that he lacks a clear plan or strategy.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a libertarian gadfly who was never considered an ally of McCarthy, openly expressed his longing for the former speaker last week following yet another embarrassing floor defeat for Republicans.
In a tweet, he expressed his frustration, stating that the effort to remove Speaker McCarthy has become a complete disaster.
Johnson is facing increasing challenges. First, he must contend with the arrival of a $95 billion supplemental spending bill from the Senate. This bill provides funding for aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
Johnson has been grappling with the issue for months, trying to find the right approach to address it.
Last year, he presented a plan to support Israel’s security requirements during its conflict with Hamas. However, the bill faced opposition in the Senate due to spending offsets included to appease the House GOP’s conservative faction. Despite Johnson’s recent decision to remove the offsets, conservative lawmakers still opposed the bill, resulting in its failure on the Senate floor.
He initially showed his support for Ukraine’s struggle against Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, he later insisted on the inclusion of border provisions in any aid bill. He then collaborated with Donald Trump to undermine a bipartisan border compromise that was carefully crafted in the Senate. Recently, he voiced his criticism of the Senate bill, highlighting its lack of border provisions.
The way he responds to the Senate bill is causing concerns about his ability to make decisive decisions. His colleagues in the GOP leadership team are often kept in the dark about his thoughts until he finally makes a decision. This makes it challenging to effectively communicate important policy issues to the public and prepare other members for difficult votes.
“I’m just as perplexed as everyone else about what he wants,” expressed a senior GOP aide when discussing the foreign aid inquiries. “He hasn’t provided us with any clear guidance… I believe he’s currently focused on simply trying to stay afloat.”
Another person chimed in, expressing their confusion about the speaker’s intentions. They noted, “I’m not sure what the speaker wants to do on that — as with most things, he seems to be all over the place.”
Johnson’s decision-making process has raised questions due to its closeness. Unlike McCarthy, who had a well-known “kitchen cabinet” consisting of Reps. Garret Graves (R-La.), Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), and Majority Whip Tom Emmer, Johnson lacks an inner circle within the conference to clarify and champion his thoughts.
According to some, this agreeable nature has resulted in miscommunication and mistakes. A senior GOP aide expressed concern, stating, “He’s so agreeable on everything that people walk away believing what they want to believe.”
When questioned about these concerns, a spokesperson for Johnson responded by stating, “They are left in the dark due to leaks.”
According to a source, Johnson is not eager to consider the Senate bill, as it received support from less than half of Senate Republicans. The source also pointed out that less than half of the House GOP voted in favor of providing aid to Ukraine in September. Additionally, the source mentioned that the White House shares responsibility for the lack of progress, as it has not yet met with Johnson to discuss the border issue.
New challenges to Johnson’s leadership are emerging rapidly. He is aiming to bring the ongoing battle over the reauthorization of a surveillance program to the House floor this week. It’s a clash between staunch Intelligence Committee Republicans and civil libertarians on the Judiciary panel.
Johnson intends to attempt to find a middle ground by presenting a text that highlights the areas of agreement between the two sides. This will provide an opportunity for the opposing factions to engage in a heated debate and propose amendments on the floor. However, some members of the Congress are already defying this plan and expressing their intention to vote against the rule that would bring the legislation to the floor.
The government funding deadlines are looming, and Johnson is in a tight spot. He faces two major challenges: the possibility of a government shutdown in the coming weeks and a potential conservative rebellion. Despite striking a spending deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Johnson has promised his members conservative policy victories. However, these wins are likely to be modest.
However, Johnson’s biggest challenge lies in the issue of foreign aid. He stated on Wednesday that he does not intend to consider the Senate bill, opting instead to prioritize the approaching appropriations deadlines and allowing members to present their own foreign aid suggestions.
The options that are currently being informally discussed are not completely within Johnson’s control. A leader who has a stronger hold on power could potentially take the Senate bill and add H.R. 2, the House’s stringent border bill, or even consider breaking up the bill into individual components for separate voting.
However, obtaining the necessary cooperation to accomplish either of these tasks would be contingent upon the support of the House Rules Committee. This committee, which is comprised of conservative hard-liners appointed by McCarthy, holds a de facto veto power over such decisions.
Undoubtedly, Johnson finds himself in a challenging position as he navigates the delicate task of leading a divided conference with a narrow majority. Adding to the pressure is the looming threat of a potential uprising from the right, reminiscent of the revolt that prematurely ended McCarthy’s speakership.
However, McCarthy emphasized to reporters on Capitol Hill that avoiding difficult decisions does not make them disappear.
“Don’t be afraid to take charge and make decisions,” encouraged McCarthy. “Once you make a decision, don’t hesitate, just go for it. I would approach the situation with the same confidence and determination as I did previously. It’s important not to let fear of others’ opinions hold you back.”