The Ukrainians had hoped to disrupt a crucial route for transporting weapons from North Korea to Russia, precisely when Ukrainian forces on the front lines were grappling with unrelenting Russian attacks. While trains and tracks can be replaced and repaired relatively swiftly, the extensive damage to this long-standing tunnel could pose a more challenging repair task.
Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a fierce conflict, involving ground battles and airstrikes. On Saturday, Russian officials claimed that Ukraine launched an attack on the Russian city of Belgorod, resulting in the deaths of at least 20 individuals and causing over 100 others to sustain injuries. This alleged attack by Ukraine is seen as a response to the significant missile strikes carried out by Russia on various Ukrainian cities the previous day.
Guerrilla tactics have become increasingly crucial as both sides struggle to make significant progress on the frontlines. These tactics involve actions such as sabotage, commando raids, targeted assassinations, and attempts to destroy ammunition depots, oil pipelines, and railways.
The tunnel was engulfed in flames at 5:20 p.m. on Nov. 29 as reported by Russian Railways. Videos circulated in the Russian media depicting flames surrounding the tunnel entrance. Authorities confirmed that the explosion occurred due to the detonation of an unidentified explosive device.
The damage caused by the explosion is not yet fully known. Both sides have provided different assessments of the impact of the explosion. However, another explosion occurred on a different train route nearby within 48 hours. These explosions, along with other acts of sabotage in Russia and occupied Ukraine, indicate that Kyiv is increasingly resorting to unconventional tactics to support their conventional forces in their efforts to defend against the escalating Russian attacks.
“The conflict in Ukraine is currently undergoing a transformation, with Ukraine shifting its focus towards conducting more guerrilla operations against Russian forces rather than conventional ones,” explained Seth Jones, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Jones, who previously advised the commanding general of the U.S. Special Operations Forces in Afghanistan, stated, “The objective is to inflict a multitude of small-scale attacks, gradually wearing down the enemy.”
Russia has a significant advantage in conventional warfare due to its larger population and military industrial complex compared to Ukraine. However, military analysts note that an occupying power, like Russia, is historically more susceptible to attacks from saboteurs who are either working for or sympathetic to the invaded country. The ongoing scorched-earth campaign in Ukraine by Russia also contributes to the resistance in the occupied territories.
Attacks on rail lines beyond the Ural Mountains, which traditionally safeguarded a significant portion of the nation’s vital military infrastructure from enemy assault, shed light on the clandestine realm of guerrilla tactics and their potential for profound impact.
Ukrainian officials typically remain tight-lipped about operations taking place within Russia. However, in this instance, they made it clear that they wanted the Kremlin to have no doubt about the perpetrators behind the attacks.
“After the second rail attack, a senior official from the Ukrainian intelligence service, known as the SBU, stated that Russian special services should come to terms with the reality that our people can be found everywhere. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for security reasons, provided specific information about the operation. The authenticity of the details was verified by the official, as well as two other high-ranking Ukrainian officials who were knowledgeable about the operation. Additionally, the details aligned with the information released by Russian authorities, videos from the scenes, and reports from Russian media outlets.”
The FSB, Russia’s security services, announced shortly after that they had apprehended two individuals believed to be responsible for orchestrating multiple arson attacks on behalf of Ukraine. They claim that one of the suspects had even placed magnetic mines on the train that later exploded in the tunnel.
Russian Railways stated that the tunnel was cleared by 120 workers in just a few days, and as a result, train traffic has been restored. However, Ukrainian intelligence officials have a different perspective, suggesting that it could take several months to fully restore the mountain pass. Unfortunately, it is challenging to verify either of these claims.
Trains play a crucial role for both parties, serving as the foundation of the Soviet supply system. However, the recent audacious assault on the tunnel located in Russia’s Far East is expected to be a significant source of worry for the Kremlin, according to Emily Ferris, a research fellow specializing in Russia at the Royal United Services Institute in Britain.
Russia has been grappling with a persistent concern for more than a century: how to safeguard its extensive and exposed railway networks.
Russia is covered by two rail lines: the trans-Siberian, a 5,772-mile stretch from Vladivostok to Moscow, and the newer Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM), which spans approximately 2,600 miles before joining the trans-Siberian line.
The railway lines that connect Russia and China are of utmost importance to Russia, both economically and militarily, especially with the recent increase in trade with Beijing. However, safeguarding these lines is a challenging task due to their passage through the Siberian plains, dense forests, and vast open steppes.
The interconnected railway systems of Russia and Belarus played a crucial role in enabling the rapid deployment of troops and equipment between the two countries. This seamless transportation network allowed Belarus to serve as a strategic launching point for Russia’s offensive on Kyiv, the capital, from the northern direction in February 2022.
According to Ferris, the Russians faced logistical challenges in the early days of the war due to strikes on the rail network. These strikes played a role in the Kremlin’s inability to capture Kyiv.
According to her, attacks have persisted in Russia since then, carried out by agents who operate for Ukraine. These attacks also involve loosely affiliated groups of self-proclaimed Russian anarchist organizations.
According to a report by the British military intelligence agency in November, the Russian authorities are still facing a significant challenge due to the ongoing sabotage of Russian railways by anti-war activists, even after seventeen months since the first incidents were reported.
According to an investigation conducted by the independent Russian media outlet Mediazona, the courts in Russia have received a total of 76 cases of suspected railway sabotage since the invasion. As reported by the agency, a significant number of prosecutions have taken place, with at least 137 individuals, mostly under the age of 24, facing legal action.
In late November, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency revealed that its agents had been actively sabotaging rail infrastructure in Russia. They proudly took responsibility for a series of fires that had completely destroyed structures housing crucial equipment used for various operations, such as platform control, train monitoring, and signaling.
Russia continues to deploy sabotage and reconnaissance groups to infiltrate Ukraine, utilizing irregular tactics to achieve their political objectives.
Ferris emphasized that it is challenging to determine the long-term impact of Ukraine’s assault on the BAM line. However, he also cautioned that the Russians would be wise not to overlook its significance.
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