During his tenure in the White House, Donald Trump witnessed the Republican Party’s decline in suburban regions throughout the United States, particularly in well-off neighborhoods populated by educated individuals.
In the 2016 presidential election, traditional GOP strongholds such as Orange County, California, and Cobb County, Georgia, were lost by Trump. This served as a preview of the Democratic gains in the 2018 midterms and the 2020 elections.
In the 2020 election, Trump faced a setback as he failed to gain strong support in several inner-ring suburban counties. This trend was noticeable even before he secured the GOP presidential nomination.
Trump is now faced with another electoral challenge: his lackluster performance in crucial exurban counties.
In its analysis, Politico looked into 1,000 counties that participated in the Republican presidential primaries this year, uncovering the voters’ strong inclination towards an alternative candidate from the GOP.
Many exurban counties in the country still lean towards the Republican Party and frequently elect GOP lawmakers at the local and congressional levels. Unlike their urban counterparts, these counties tend to have a lower concentration of voters with college degrees, a demographic that typically supports Democrats. As a result, many residents in exurban areas may align with the Republican Party but may not particularly support Trump.
According to Politico, there are many moderate Republicans who now claim that they will not vote for Trump again. Parker Fairbairn, the Republican Party chairman in Emmet County, Michigan, expressed this sentiment.
In the 2016 general election, Trump emerged victorious in Emmet County, located in the northern part of the Lower Peninsula, with a commanding lead of 19 points. Fast forward four years, and he managed to secure the county once again, this time with a slightly narrower margin of 11 points.
In the 2024 Michigan GOP primary, Emmet was won by Trump with a margin of 34 points, although this was slightly lower than his overall statewide victory of nearly 42 points.
Despite losing statewide, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, who was Trump’s chief primary opponent until she dropped out earlier this month, managed to secure 30 percent of the vote in Emmet.
In the North Carolina primary, a similar situation occurred. Despite Trump’s overwhelming victory statewide by a margin of nearly 51 points, Haley managed to garner approximately a quarter of the vote in the GOP-leaning Charlotte exurbs of Cabarrus and Union counties.
Will President Joe Biden be able to gain the support of some of these voters in the upcoming fall?
Many Republicans are counting on the fact that a significant number of voters will eventually return to their previous habits and choose to support Trump based on economic considerations. Biden has faced challenges in effectively communicating his accomplishments in the economic sphere, resulting in a lack of resonance with voters.
However, there are some enthusiastic supporters of Haley who are going all-in to support Biden’s reelection campaign. They are determined to win over voters who are still hesitant about Trump.
Robert Schwartz, a senior advisor for Haley Voters for Biden, a former pro-Haley super PAC, is among the supporters.
According to Politico, there are still lingering emotions surrounding the treatment of Nikki Haley and her family. Many supporters of Haley feel resentful and disgusted by the way they were treated, as well as how the MAGA movement and Donald Trump have treated Haley supporters. The goal is to preserve this sense of resentment and disgust towards Trump’s treatment of them.