According to new projections released on Wednesday by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), an estimated 17.5 million Latinos are anticipated to participate in the upcoming November elections. This represents a 6.5% increase from the previous year and holds the potential to exert a substantial influence in crucial battleground states.
The projected increase in the number of eligible Hispanic voters reflects the growing demographic, but it will depend on efforts to ensure their registration.
Arturo Vargas, the CEO of the association, emphasized the importance of registering Latinos to vote during a news conference. According to Vargas, the key takeaway is that when Latinos are successfully registered, they demonstrate high turnout rates in elections.
According to Dorian Caal, NALEO’s director of civic engagement research, a significant 88% of Latino registered voters exercised their right to vote in 2020.
In the upcoming November election, the Latino voting population is projected to make up more than 10% of the total voters, marking a significant increase of 20.5% compared to 2016, as reported by NALEO.
In 2024, several states are expected to experience an increase in Latino voter turnout compared to 2020. California is projected to see a 6.1% increase, while Florida is expected to have a significant rise of 13.8%. Similarly, Nevada is anticipated to have a 15.5% increase, and New York may see a boost of 12.4% in Latino voter participation. On the other hand, Arizona, Georgia, New Jersey, and Texas are likely to have similar turnout rates as observed in the previous election.
NALEO bases its projections on past trends.
Hoping for high turnout — as in 2020
The 2020 election witnessed a significant increase in voter turnout across the board.
According to a tracking poll conducted by NALEO leading up to the 2020 election, it was discovered that 75% of Latinos expressed greater enthusiasm for voting compared to the 2016 election.
“There were several factors that influenced Latino voter turnout in 2020,” Vargas noted. “It’s important to remember that the election took place during the Covid pandemic, which significantly affected the health, social, and economic conditions of Latinos in their communities.”
Concerns over lowering the cost of health care and the racial reckoning after the death of George Floyd were among the factors that contributed to the increased Hispanic voter turnout in 2020.
Hispanics in the 2020 tracking poll also mentioned a rise in outreach from campaigns and other organizations.
According to Vargas, the voter turnout rate in 2020 was 92% for all voters across the nation. Among Latinos, 88% of those who were registered to vote actually cast their votes. This indicates that the gap between non-Hispanic and Hispanic voting in 2020 significantly narrowed due to the motivating factors that encouraged a large number of people to participate in the electoral process.
According to the latest Census data, Hispanics make up the largest racial and ethnic minority group in the United States. As of 2022, their population stood at 63.7 million, representing approximately 19% of the total population.
Caal emphasized the importance of addressing the challenge of getting Latinos registered to vote. According to him, the number of eligible Latino voters is increasing at a faster rate compared to other population groups.
Carmen Sesin is a skilled reporter for NBC News, and she is based in Miami, Florida.