On Tuesday night, the New York Police Department took action by sending in hundreds of officers to Columbia University and the City College of New York. Their mission was to remove protestors who had established encampments and occupied administrative buildings. The protestors were voicing their opposition to Israel’s conduct in its conflict against Hamas, as well as U.S. military support for Israel and the colleges’ investments in companies linked to Israel. This incident is part of a series of clashes occurring on college campuses nationwide, which have garnered significant media and public attention.
Scenes of college protestors on the left expressing their dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden’s continued support for Israel, despite his growing criticism of its actions and the absence of a ceasefire, have raised concerns about the potential impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict on Biden’s popularity among younger voters in the 2024 presidential election. Early polling for the general election indicates that Biden’s advantage among younger voters has either significantly diminished or completely disappeared in a potential rematch against former President Donald Trump. Given that younger voters have consistently shown a strong preference for Democrats in recent years, these trends could pose a serious threat to Biden’s chances of re-election.
While it may seem logical to attribute these numbers to frustration over the Middle East conflict, it’s unlikely that the Israel-Hamas dispute is the main factor behind Biden’s decline in support among young individuals. Surveys indicate that young people are more invested in other matters than the events unfolding in the Middle East, suggesting that the turmoil on college campuses might not accurately reflect broader concerns.
It is highly probable that Biden’s decrease in support stems from the general discontent with his presidency and his approach to other matters, rather than a concern specific to young voters, such as their more unfavorable perspectives on the war. However, regardless of the underlying cause, a decline in support or turnout among young voters would undeniably pose a significant challenge to Biden’s chances of re-election, even though they will not comprise a substantial portion of the voting population in 2024.
Young Americans are most critical of Israel
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According to polls, it is evident that young people have a higher tendency to hold negative views about Israel and U.S. support for Israel compared to older Americans. In a late February survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, which had a significantly large sample size, the 18- to 29-year-old age group showed distinct opinions. Compared to their older counterparts, this younger cohort was more likely to believe that Israel’s response to Hamas’s attack was unacceptable, oppose U.S. military aid to Israel, perceive President Biden’s policies as excessively favorable towards Israel, acknowledge valid reasons for Hamas to fight against Israel, and express at least some sympathy towards Palestinians over Israelis.
Most young people did not hold strong anti-Israel views or favor Hamas. In general, 21 percent of individuals aged 18 to 29 expressed equal sympathy for both Israelis and Palestinians. Comparatively, 33 percent leaned more towards Palestinians, while 14 percent leaned towards Israelis. Interestingly, a slight majority (34 percent) believed that Hamas had valid reasons for fighting in the conflict. However, a similar majority (38 percent) also believed that Israel had valid reasons for fighting. It is worth noting that all age groups overwhelmingly condemned the way Hamas carried out its attack on Oct. 7, with individuals aged 18 to 29 being the most likely (35 percent) to state that both sides had acted unacceptably.
According to other surveys, it is evident that younger Americans have strong opinions about the situation in Israel. The Harvard Youth Poll, conducted in March by the Institute of Politics at Harvard, revealed that 51 percent of individuals aged 18 to 29 support a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. This aligns with the stance of progressive Democrats in Congress, although achieving this goal may prove challenging. Additionally, the survey found that more young Americans consider Israel’s response to Hamas’s attack as unjustified rather than justified, with 32 percent to 21 percent expressing this view. However, almost half of the respondents were unsure. Furthermore, an almost equal majority expressed sympathy for both the Israeli and Palestinian people affected by this conflict, with 52 percent and 56 percent respectively.
According to recent national surveys of all Americans or registered voters, the findings have shown similar results, albeit with smaller sample sizes for young people, resulting in a higher margin of error. In a survey conducted by Gallup in March, it was found that 55 percent of Americans overall disapproved of Israel’s military action in Gaza, with 63 percent of those aged 18 to 34 expressing disapproval. Another survey conducted by YouGov/The Economist from April 28-30 revealed that individuals aged 18 to 29 were more likely to sympathize more with Palestinians (32 percent) than with Israelis (13 percent). Additionally, 26 percent of this age group stated that they sympathized with both parties equally, making them the only age group to have a clear preference for Palestinians. The same survey also found that 39 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds believed that Israel’s military response had been too harsh, which was higher than any other age group.
But Israel-Gaza isn’t a top priority for younger Americans
While college campus protests often dominate the headlines, the conflict in Israel does not hold significant importance for most young Americans. In a survey conducted by the Harvard Youth Poll, respondents were presented with different pairs of issues and asked to choose which one was more important to them. The results revealed that, similar to the overall American population, young people are primarily concerned about economic or economic-related matters. More than half of the respondents, 53% or more, prioritized issues such as inflation, jobs, housing, and healthcare over other topics. In contrast, only 34% considered “Israel/Palestine” as more important, placing it second to last in the ranking. It is worth noting that the issue ranked higher than just student debt, another widely discussed topic.
It is interesting to note that there was not a significant difference in the importance of Israel/Palestine among 18- to 29-year-olds based on their college status. This is noteworthy because college students are often more engaged in protests. Among college students, 35 percent considered Israel/Palestine to be more important than other issues, while the same sentiment was shared by 33 percent of non-college students and 36 percent of college graduates. Even within the young Democrats, a party known for its opposition to Israel’s actions and military funding, only 37 percent considered it a top priority.
According to additional surveys, younger Americans do not consider this issue to be particularly significant when it comes to their vote in 2024. In a recent collaboration between Bloomberg and Morning Consult, registered voters in seven swing states were surveyed, with questions regarding the importance of various issues in their decision-making process for the upcoming election. The results from their April poll indicated that only 59 percent of 18- to 34-year-olds in swing states considered the Israel-Hamas conflict to be very or somewhat important to their vote.
The Israel-Hamas war, despite its significance on the global stage, ranked low in importance among voters. In fact, it was tied for last place with the Russia-Ukraine war, with only 63 percent considering it important. On the other hand, a staggering 95 percent of voters rated the economy as important, while approximately 90 percent regarded crime, education, health care, and housing as significant issues. This trend was consistent among Generation Z voters, aged 18 to 27, where the Israel-Hamas war was only prioritized above the Russia-Ukraine conflict. When asked to identify the issue that was most influential in their voting decision, a mere 3 percent of 18 to 34-year-olds and 4 percent of Gen Z voters named the Israel-Hamas conflict.
If there are other prominent concerns, it is probable that the decline in support for Biden among young people is primarily due to their general dissatisfaction with his presidency, rather than solely the Israel-Hamas conflict. According to 538’s tracker, the president’s overall job approval rating stands at approximately 40 percent, while his disapproval rating is 56 percent. Numerous polls have consistently shown that Americans, including young individuals, strongly disapprove of his performance as president.
Surveys reveal that Biden receives negative ratings regarding his handling of crucial matters such as the economy, inflation, and immigration. This sentiment holds true for both the general population and specifically among younger individuals. While it is important to acknowledge that Biden’s approach to the Israel situation also contributes to his low approval ratings, it is likely not the primary concern for voters. Other pressing issues seem to take precedence.
Young voters will matter to the election outcome — but they alone can’t save Biden
When it comes to the impending rematch between Biden and Trump, the polling numbers of young voters have been unpredictable. National surveys conducted by reputable pollsters have yielded varying results, with some showing Biden in the lead among young voters, others indicating that the two candidates are neck and neck, and a few suggesting that Trump has a slight advantage. However, one challenge faced by most national surveys is the relatively small sample size of young voters, which makes the data less reliable.
Recent national surveys, including the Harvard Youth Poll and the Pew Research Center, have indicated that Joe Biden is leading among young people aged 18 to 29. In early March, the Harvard poll showed Biden with a 50 percent to 37 percent lead among registered voters (56 percent to 37 percent among likely voters). Similarly, the Pew survey in early April found Biden ahead with 59 percent to 38 percent. These results suggest that Biden has a strong support base among young voters.
Nevertheless, including third-party candidates like Robert Kennedy Jr. in the equation caused a drop in Biden’s lead, according to the Harvard poll. Additionally, both polls revealed that newer voters, who did not participate in the 2020 election due to age restrictions, displayed a lesser reluctance to support Trump. Among those aged 18 to 24, Biden’s advantage was narrower compared to those aged 25 to 29, as indicated by the Harvard poll. Pew’s survey showed that registered voters who abstained from voting in 2020, including individuals who were too young to vote at that time, were almost evenly split between Trump and Biden.
Polling broadly suggests that Biden’s support among young people is weakening compared to the 2020 election, which poses a significant threat to his chances of getting reelected. Historically, younger voters have leaned more towards the Democratic party, and in the last election, they favored Biden by a margin of around 25 percentage points, according to various surveys. Considering that Biden won by narrow margins in key swing states, losing support from young voters would be particularly concerning for his campaign. For instance, a scenario presented in 538’s Swing-O-Matic interactive tool shows that an increase in third-party voting and a decrease in turnout among young people could potentially tip the scales in favor of Trump by flipping Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, assuming other groups maintain their 2020 levels of support.
Even if Biden manages to regain support from young voters, it does not guarantee his victory in the election. According to 538’s national polling average, Trump currently has a slight lead over Biden. Moreover, Biden is trailing behind Trump in swing states by different margins based on our averages. These numbers highlight a broader issue for Biden, as he struggles to gain support from voters beyond just the younger demographic.
In terms of age, younger voters constitute the smallest portion of the electorate. This is mainly because they tend to have lower voter turnout compared to older voters. According to calculations by political scientist Michael McDonald at the University of Florida Election Lab, around 53 percent of eligible 18- to 29-year-olds voted in 2020. While this was the highest turnout in recent history, it still fell significantly short of the overall 66 percent turnout rate that year, which set a new record. Additionally, voters aged 18 to 29 accounted for only approximately 16 percent of all voters in 2020, with the highest percentage they’ve represented in the past few decades being 18 percent in 1992.