The House GOP’s efforts to impeach Joe Biden seem to be on the verge of coming to a halt.
The impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas narrowly passed, but only after two attempts, casting doubt on Republicans’ willingness to engage in a larger impeachment battle. In addition, a prominent informant who made bribery accusations against the Biden family has been indicted and has now connected some of his information to Russian intelligence.
The numbers were already stacked against House Republicans, even before the recent developments. With Democrats winning a special election in New York, House Republicans can only afford to lose two votes on the floor. Failing to impeach Biden would further add to the embarrassment of a conference that struggles to reconcile the ambitious demands of its right flank with the reality of a slim majority.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a vulnerable incumbent from a purple district, revealed that there are approximately 20 Republicans who do not support the impeachment of Biden. He pointed out that while the actions of the President may appear and smell bad, those who oppose impeachment are unable to cite any specific crimes committed. Despite initially expressing doubts about impeaching Mayorkas, Rep. Bacon ultimately backed the effort.
According to Bacon, around 30 House GOP lawmakers may currently be against impeaching the president due to the lack of evidence of any crime. Even private briefings to inform these members about the investigation have not changed their minds. Republicans are aware that as they approach the upcoming election year, attempting to impeach Biden becomes increasingly politically risky. In fact, they may inadvertently give the president a polling boost even if their impeachment efforts are successful.
In a recent TV interview, Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) expressed his belief that the prospects for impeaching Biden are becoming increasingly bleak. Despite this setback, conservatives remain optimistic and are looking to generate fresh momentum from upcoming events such as the deposition of Hunter Biden next week and a March hearing with Special Counsel Robert Hur, who investigated Joe Biden’s mishandling of classified documents.
Members from both sides of the political spectrum agree that it will be more challenging to advocate for Biden’s removal from office compared to the previous vote on Mayorkas. Initially, they saw impeaching the Cabinet official as a simple method to express their frustration with Biden’s approach to the southern border. However, it has now become evident that the Republican Party’s case against the president lacks substantial evidence and is not gaining any traction.
When asked about the possibility of impeaching President Biden following their unsuccessful attempt to remove Mayorkas, Representative Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) straightforwardly responded with a “no.” Norman, who is a member of the conservative Freedom Caucus, also expressed his disappointment that the conference did not unanimously support the idea of removing the Cabinet official.
During an interview on CBS News’ “The Takeout with Major Garrett” podcast, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) expressed his belief that the chances of Biden impeachment articles receiving a floor vote are “less than 50 percent.” Additionally, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), a member of the Oversight Committee, stated at the Conservative Political Action Conference that Republicans would not likely reach a point where they could impeach Biden, especially considering the narrow margin they have.
Centrists were always going to find it challenging to accept the high-profile vote against Biden unless GOP investigators could present clear evidence of the president’s involvement in a crime. However, even some Republicans on the impeachment-leading committees privately acknowledge that they have received little information from top investigators in recent weeks. These leaders have been conducting a series of interviews quietly.
Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), a member of the Judiciary Committee and a skeptic of impeachment, has expressed his willingness to listen to the evidence. However, he has not been updated by investigators regarding the possibility of impeaching President Biden.
He inquired about the number of individuals that would be sent to the Senate as part of the House GOP’s wider impeachment plans. Lawmakers anticipate a brief trial for Mayorkas in the Senate next week, which they believe will be promptly dismissed.
All Republicans voted last year to officially initiate the impeachment inquiry against Biden. This was seen as a victory for GOP leadership, but it came with an important clarification: their vote in favor of the interim step did not necessarily indicate their support for impeachment. Rather, they aimed to provide investigators with stronger tools for legal battles concerning the acquisition of records and interviews.
If GOP leaders choose to move forward, the next step would involve drafting official impeachment articles. It is anticipated that Republicans will make a decision on whether to pursue this course of action next month. Speaker Mike Johnson will likely make this decision in consultation with the conference.
The decision is not only overshadowed by the challenging whip count, but also by recent developments involving the Justice Department. Alexander Smirnov, an FBI informant, has been charged for his involvement in a bribery allegation that garnered attention during the House investigation last year.
In a 2020 FBI document, it was revealed that Smirnov shared details of a conversation he had with Mykola Zlochevsky, the owner of Burisma, an energy company in Ukraine. Smirnov claimed that Zlochevsky admitted to paying a bribe to both Hunter Biden and Joe Biden. However, a recent court filing by the Department of Justice confirmed that this allegation was completely false.
After learning more information about Smirnov, Republican investigators began to distance themselves from his initial accusations. As part of this effort, they removed any references to the FBI document from a letter they recently sent, in which they requested an interview with a White House staffer.
According to Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the fundamental facts remain unchanged, despite recent developments. In a statement, Comer also emphasized that the investigation is not dependent on the FBI’s 2020 document summarizing Smirnov’s allegations.
According to Comer, the focus will remain on gathering factual information to propose legislative reforms for federal ethics laws. Additionally, the determination of whether articles of impeachment are warranted will also be made based on these facts.
Republican investigators have meticulously gathered extensive bank and financial records, along with conducting numerous interviews with witnesses, in their relentless pursuit of evidence connecting President Joe Biden’s actions both during his time as vice president and president to his family’s business ventures. Although they have uncovered numerous instances where Biden’s family members have sought to leverage their famous surname to enhance their own influence, as well as identified inconsistencies in past statements made by Joe Biden and the White House, they have yet to discover irrefutable evidence that could be considered the definitive proof they seek.
During dinners, one of Hunter Biden’s previous associates testified that he would often have Joe Biden on speakerphone. Additionally, the now-president would sometimes join these dinners with business associates. However, it is important to note that business matters were not discussed during these informal moments. Another former associate of Hunter Biden, Rob Walker, also confirmed that Joe Biden was not involved in their business deals.
As he shared the story of Joe Biden’s visit to a lunch with business associates in 2017, Walker described it as a casual exchange of pleasantries.
Republicans have also turned their attention to James Biden, Joe Biden’s brother, conducting a lengthy closed-door meeting with him on Wednesday. James Biden has faced increasing scrutiny in recent years due to reports, including from POLITICO, which revealed that he leverages his connection to his brother to secure business opportunities.
However, these snippets of information have not been sufficient to persuade the majority of House Republicans to support impeachment. In order to successfully impeach, they can only afford to lose two votes if all members are present. Some lawmakers who eventually conceded and voted in favor of impeaching Mayorkas caution GOP leaders against assuming that they will have a similar change of heart when it comes to President Biden.
In a brief interview, Representative David Joyce (R-Ohio) emphasized that the Biden impeachment effort and the ongoing accusations should be treated as two separate cases. He expressed his lack of evidence regarding the Biden impeachment, stating, “I’ve not seen any evidence. I’ve heard a lot of accusations.”