According to preliminary exit poll results from the Republican primary in Ohio, approximately two to three out of every ten Republican primary voters still oppose Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy. Interestingly, among those who support Nikki Haley, almost half of them would be willing to back Joe Biden in the upcoming November election.
While preliminary exit poll data reveals that a majority of voters express loyalty towards Trump, it is important to consider the extent of intraparty challenges as we approach the upcoming November contest, which is expected to be a close race. Although Trump has secured the nomination, it is worth noting that 20% of Ohio GOP primary voters would be dissatisfied if he were to become the nominee. Additionally, 22% believe that Trump lacks the temperament required to effectively serve, and 28% believe that he would not be fit for office if convicted of a crime.
According to the survey results, a total of 18% of respondents stated that they would not support Trump in the upcoming November election. Out of this group, 10% expressed a preference for Biden, while 8% stated that they would not vote for either candidate. It is worth noting that in the 2020 election, 6% of Republicans voted for Biden. Therefore, if a significant number of Republicans choose not to participate in the election, it could pose an additional risk for Trump.
Many of the criticisms of Trump stem from those who initially supported Haley but still voted despite her withdrawal from the race. (Absentee voting in Ohio began on February 21, two weeks before Haley suspended her campaign.) Among these supporters, 88% express dissatisfaction with Trump as the nominee, 91% believe he lacks the temperament required for office, and 88% consider him unfit if convicted. Eight out of ten state that they would not vote for him in the general election, with 47% favoring Biden and 32% indicating that they wouldn’t vote for either candidate. Only 18% of Haley voters claim they would vote for Trump in the upcoming election.
According to preliminary exit poll results, a majority of Haley voters (60%) view the Republican Party as “too conservative.” Similarly, 19% of GOP primary voters share this sentiment. Furthermore, only 42% of Republican voters identify themselves as part of the MAGA movement, consistent with previous races this year.
Tuesday’s election will serve as a crucial test of Trump’s influence, specifically in determining whether his favored candidate for the party’s U.S. Senate nomination, Bernie Moreno, can emerge victorious.
In a head-to-head battle against the state’s GOP establishment, Moreno, a car dealership and blockchain business owner, has gained the endorsement of Trump. He is up against state Sen. Matt Dolan, whose father is the owner of the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, and Secretary of State Frank LaRose. The ultimate victor will go on to face incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown in the upcoming fall election. Trump showed his support for Moreno by attending a rally in Dayton on Saturday, where he criticized Dolan for not being conservative enough.
According to preliminary exit poll results, Moreno may have a significant advantage as 79% of Senate primary voters approve of how Trump handled his job as president, with 59% strongly approving. Additionally, 71% of voters consider it important that the state’s next U.S. senator supports Trump, with 55% considering it very important. Among this group, Moreno holds a commanding 45 percentage point lead over Dolan.
The composition of the state’s GOP electorate played a crucial role in the Senate race, along with the percentage of white evangelical Christians – a key demographic that strongly supported Trump in previous primaries this year, along with staunch conservatives. Moreno outperformed Dolan by 30 points among white evangelicals, 39 points among those who are dissatisfied with the country’s direction (another prominent Trump-aligned group), 44 points among very conservative voters, and 45 points among those who highly approve of Trump’s presidency.
Moreno, similar to Trump, garnered significant support from voters without a four-year college degree, with 55% of the turnout favoring him. On the other hand, Dolan emerged as the preferred choice among moderate voters, particularly those who were not seeking a senator with ties to Trump.
According to preliminary results, a significant majority of GOP voters demonstrate a conservative stance on various issues. For instance, 72% of respondents support the deportation of most unauthorized immigrants. Furthermore, 61% express enthusiasm or satisfaction with the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to eliminate the constitutional right to abortion. Additionally, 50% indicate their willingness to back a federal law that would ban all or most abortions across the nation. It is worth noting that in a statewide ballot initiative last year, Ohioans voted 57-43% in favor of enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution.
In the preliminary exit poll results, Moreno emerged as a strong contender among those who support deportation and oppose abortion. On the other hand, Dolan received significant support from those who hold opposing views on these issues.
In the presidential race, the voters supporting Haley differ from Trump’s supporters on important issues. Unlike Trump’s voters, only 40% of Haley’s supporters back the idea of deporting most unauthorized immigrants. Additionally, 37% of Haley’s voters express enthusiasm or satisfaction with the abortion ruling, while only 19% support a federal abortion ban. These differences highlight the fundamental gaps between the Trump and Haley camps.
