Following President Biden’s State of the Union address in March, he experienced a surge in the polls that appeared to rejuvenate his campaign and energize the Democratic Party.
Just two months later, it seems that Biden’s quiet comeback is losing momentum.
By mid-April, Biden’s surge appeared to be gaining momentum, giving the impression that he had found his stride and would carry that momentum into the election. However, recent polls paint a less optimistic picture.
According to a recent national poll conducted by CNN, former President Donald Trump is currently leading President Biden by 6 points in a head-to-head horserace, with 49 percent support compared to Biden’s 43 percent. The poll also revealed that only 34 percent of voters approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, which is often considered a key factor in determining voting preferences.
If we look at consumer sentiment as a gauge of Biden’s chances in the election, it becomes clear that Democrats have cause for concern. A significant 65 percent of registered voters place great importance on the economy. When we delve into how these voters, who prioritize the economy, plan to vote, it shows that Biden is projected to lose by a margin of over 30 points. Specifically, he is expected to receive only 30 percent of their votes, while his opponent is projected to receive 62 percent.
According to state-level polling conducted by Fox News, Trump has regained his lead in the upcoming election despite his ongoing trial in New York City having minimal impact on his support. The poll reveals that Trump is currently ahead of Biden in the crucial swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with a margin ranging from 1 to 5 points. However, this narrow lead suggests that Trump’s chances of winning are diminishing as time goes on.
According to Fox News, a majority of voters in each state believe that the Trump “hush money” trial is appropriate and fair. However, even if there is a guilty verdict, most voters, particularly Republicans, claim that it would not affect their willingness to vote for Trump. In fact, in many cases, it may even increase their likelihood of voting for him.
These two polls clearly indicate that Trump has regained his lead, despite facing contempt charges and the possibility of jail time. The Biden campaign, which had been hopeful after the State of the Union, should be concerned about this concerning trend.
During the period between February and mid-April, polls indicated that Biden was making progress in his campaign against Trump. In fact, there was a point where Biden was actually ahead of Trump in 18 national polls.
Additionally, Biden continued to achieve a string of victories, including boosting economic sentiment, a crucial metric that the administration was determined to improve. Moreover, the media’s focus was predominantly on the initial news coverage surrounding Trump, who had shifted his attention from the campaign trail to spending most of his time in the courtroom.
During Trump’s legal battles, Biden managed to secure substantial donations, boosting his financial advantage over his opponent. At a Radio City fundraiser, Biden was joined by former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, resulting in the Biden campaign raising a staggering $25 million, setting a new record.
Republican infighting has been prominently showcased in the House, which has significantly harmed the credibility of the entire GOP. Recently, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green (R-Ga.) made the announcement that she intends to initiate a vote to remove Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who relied on Democratic support to successfully pass a series of foreign aid bills last week. To make matters worse, the Republican National Committee, the party’s primary fundraising organization, has been embroiled in a scandal, resulting in widespread layoffs and leadership shake-ups.
However, despite all the momentum, it seems that Biden’s surge has come to a halt.
In a previous article, I discussed how Biden’s greatest challenge for a second term lies in the widespread belief that he has a negative impact on the economy and individuals’ financial well-being. Unfortunately, as inflation persists and conflicts in Europe and the Middle East continue unabated, coupled with ongoing protests against Israel on American college campuses and an open southern border, Biden has made little effort to alter this perception.
Biden’s approval ratings have significantly declined across three key issues since taking office: the economy, foreign policy, and immigration. In January 2020, a substantial 61 percent of the population approved of Biden’s handling of the economy, while 60 percent approved of his approach to foreign affairs. Additionally, 57 percent expressed approval for his management of immigration, according to the Harvard/Harris survey.
According to the most recent Harvard/Harris poll released last week, Biden’s approval rating is below water across all three metrics. On the economy, it stands at 42 percent, while on foreign affairs and immigration, it is at 42 percent and 38 percent respectively.
Whether it is the impact of inflation that breeds economic pessimism, the ongoing security concerns at the southern border that keep immigration as a pressing issue, or the increasing unrest on college campuses, Biden seems to be navigating from one crisis to another. It appears that he is struggling to effectively oversee and guide the nation.
It’s important to note that this doesn’t mean the election is guaranteed for Trump. While the former president does have numerous legal challenges to face, the results of the GOP primary indicate that Nikki Haley still has a significant amount of support, even after withdrawing from the race.
Progressives, who are deeply frustrated with Biden’s stance on Israel and are expressing their anger, may be contemplating whether they should abstain from voting if faced with the possibility of a Trump presidency. This concern has the potential to disrupt the Democratic National Convention later this year.
After a short period of time where it seemed like Biden had finally hit his stride, his numbers are once again decreasing while Trump’s popularity is increasing. This is definitely a cause for concern for Democrats as the November election draws nearer.
Douglas E. Schoen, a political consultant and founder of Schoen Cooperman Research, has an impressive background as an adviser to President Clinton and the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. In his new book, “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat,” Schoen explores the current global dynamics and the challenges America faces.
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