Tornado experts have revealed that the unusually warm weather this winter played a crucial role in triggering a series of devastating tornadoes and destructive hailstorms in the Midwest. These extreme weather events occurred on Wednesday and Thursday, causing significant damage and posing a threat to human lives.
Thursday’s tornado outbreak in Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, and Arkansas claimed the lives of at least three individuals. Surprisingly, this occurrence took place earlier than expected, as tornado outbreaks are typically associated with May or April. Meteorologists attribute this unusual timing to the hottest winter recorded in both the United States and globally. Additionally, the outbreak followed a previous incident where Kansas experienced large hail.
Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini explained that for severe storms to occur this far north during this time of year, warm weather is a crucial factor.
TORNADO RECIPE
According to Gensini and Harold Brooks, scientists from the National Severe Storms Laboratory, two essential elements are required for the formation of tornadoes and storms with large hail: wind shear and instability.
According to Gensini, wind shear is a common occurrence during the winter and spring seasons. It occurs when winds change direction and speed as they move higher in the atmosphere. This phenomenon is a result of the temperature variations that are typically observed across different regions of the country.
But this time of year, what is typically missing is instability, which refers to the juicy warm humid air close to the ground that is characteristic of summer, as noted by Gensini and Brooks.
In the winter and early spring, Arctic air typically moves southwards, displacing the warm moist air towards the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, dry and stable cool air settles in, preventing the formation of tornadoes and large hail, according to Matt Elliott, the warning coordination meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
According to meteorologists, this year has been quite different. Unlike previous years, there has only been a single Arctic blast, and that occurred two months ago.
According to Brooks, when the temperature is warmer than usual, there tends to be a higher occurrence of warm tornadoes during the winter. He suggests that this correlation might not necessarily imply causation, but rather both phenomena could be happening due to the same underlying factor.
STORMY MIDWEST
Last year’s severe weather is still fresh in his memory, but he didn’t expect it to arrive so early this year.
He added that it has never been worse than this.
In the past five weeks, there have been five tornado or large outbreaks in the Midwest or Great Lakes area, which is quite unusual, according to Gensini. These outbreaks include Wisconsin experiencing its first-ever February tornado on Feb. 8, followed by 32 tornadoes, with one even occurring just a quarter-mile away from Gensini’s house on Feb. 27. Additionally, there was a significant hailstorm and a tornado near the Illinois-Iowa border on March 4. On March 13, there were reports of gorilla-sized hail measuring 4 inches, accompanied by some tornadoes. Finally, on March 14, tornadoes hit various parts of the Midwest, resulting in the unfortunate deaths of at least 3 people in Ohio.
According to Gensini, tornado activity during this time of year is usually more prevalent in the South. However, the current situation is unique as there have been tornadoes occurring further north than what is typically expected.
According to NOAA’s Elliott, it might be a bit premature, but this is typically the time of year when severe storms begin to increase in the Midwest. However, they usually don’t reach their peak until May.
According to Elliott, the events that unfolded this week are quite common during the spring season.
According to the Storm Prediction Center of NOAA, the number of tornadoes and tornado fatalities this year is slightly below the normal average. Prior to Thursday, only two people had been killed by tornadoes, which is significantly lower than the average of twelve fatalities by this time of year over the past fifteen years.
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