Nikki Haley’s campaign manager assured reporters on the eve of the South Carolina primary that Haley is determined to persist in her campaign “until the very end.”
The delegate math is already swinging shut.
Haley emphasized her achievement of winning nearly 40 percent of the vote in South Carolina on Saturday night. However, despite her strong showing, she has only been able to secure 16 percent of the delegates. In comparison, former President Donald Trump’s successful performance in the first four states earned him 110 delegates, while Haley has only obtained 20 delegates.
The upcoming contests will bring a swift accumulation of delegates, and it appears highly unlikely that Haley will withstand the overwhelming surge. Even in the most optimistic scenario, where Haley’s appeal exceeds expectations, Trump is projected to secure 897 delegates by the end of Super Tuesday on March 5, while Haley is expected to only have 210 delegates, based on current polling and the delegate allocation rules of each state.
And let’s not forget, that’s being quite generous to Haley.
In the ongoing primary race, only a small fraction of the total delegates have been allocated. However, the month of March holds significant importance as it contributes to a staggering 65 percent of all delegates. Moreover, the rules governing the primaries work against Haley, who currently trails by significant margins in the upcoming states’ polls. This means that she is likely to receive an even smaller portion of the delegates compared to her share of the votes in the coming month.
Haley’s performance in the initial three competitions was quite impressive, as she managed to secure approximately 38 percent of the votes and 16 percent of the delegates.
In many upcoming states, the rules state that the candidate who wins a majority of the vote will receive all of the delegates. In the case of Trump, this means he will likely secure all of the delegates. Additionally, starting March 19, most states will transition to a true winner-take-all system. This means that as long as Trump secures a plurality of the votes, he will sweep all the delegates.
In California, the largest prize in the primary, Trump’s supporters played a role in shaping certain rules. One such rule stipulated that if a candidate obtains a majority of the vote, the state would switch to a winner-take-all system. This strategic maneuver anticipated the possibility of Trump garnering over 50 percent of the votes, a prediction that has proven to be accurate thus far.
According to a recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California, Trump is poised to secure all of California’s 169 delegates. The poll showed that Trump had a commanding lead of 64 percent, while Haley trailed far behind at just 17 percent.
In this optimistic state-by-state scenario for Haley, she would clean up the delegates across the rest of the country through Super Tuesday. However, even with all the possible advantages, it is highly unlikely.
In Tuesday’s Michigan primary, Haley may secure her first state win and receive a majority of the delegates, which amounts to seven out of 13. However, the majority of Michigan’s delegates, totaling 39, will be awarded at a state convention scheduled for next weekend. It is widely anticipated that Trump will dominate this convention, as he enjoys substantial support from within the party.
Haley is also projected to secure delegates from Utah (40) and Virginia (48), with an equal split between the two candidates due to the historical skepticism of Trump within their Republican electorates. It’s important to note that in these states, there are still majority thresholds that could potentially award the winner, likely Trump, a significant portion, if not all, of the delegates.
In a generous scenario for Haley, it is highly likely that Trump will secure all of the delegates from the Super Tuesday states. These states include Alabama, Arkansas, California, Maine, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, and Vermont. Once a candidate reaches a majority, these states operate on a winner-takes-all basis. Additionally, if Trump manages to secure two-thirds of the vote in Tennessee, he will also secure all of the delegates from that state.
Texas has 161 statewide delegates, with the same majority threshold. Additionally, it awards delegates for each of its 38 congressional districts. In our analysis, we have allocated two-thirds of the district delegates to Trump and one-third to Haley. However, it is anticipated that the former president will secure a larger share of these delegates.
Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, and North Carolina have proportional delegate allocations. Assuming a rough breakdown of 60-40 in favor of Trump-Haley, the delegates from these states will likely give Haley a substantial number of delegates, even if she ends up losing by a larger margin. This breakdown is similar to the support she received in New Hampshire, which has a more favorable electorate, and in South Carolina, her home state.
Haley faces a harsh reality within a mere two weeks of Super Tuesday, a crucial day with additional contests that could potentially secure Trump’s victory.
During a three-day stretch in mid-March, 170 delegates will be up for grabs, followed by another 350 on March 19. By that time, it is highly likely that Trump will have secured the nomination.
Haley made a commitment on Saturday night to persist with her campaign. If she remains an active candidate on Super Tuesday, she will secure delegates. However, the number of delegates she will earn will be limited, and it will not significantly contribute to her chances of securing the nomination.