Welcome to the online edition of “From the Politics Desk”, an evening newsletter that offers you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House, and Capitol Hill by the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, we shine a spotlight on the moderate House Republicans who are currently facing primary challenges from the right in the upcoming weeks. It is crucial to note that high voter turnout has the potential to significantly boost Donald Trump’s chances this fall.
Pennsylvania’s primary provides an early test for GOP moderates facing threats from the right
This Article Includes
By Bridget Bowman
House Speaker Mike Johnson is not the sole House Republican who is being targeted by threats from within his own party. The upcoming primaries in Pennsylvania on Tuesday mark the beginning of another series of internal battles between GOP lawmakers and challengers who claim that these lawmakers are not conservative enough.
In Pennsylvania’s 1st District, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is seeking to overcome the challenge posed by anti-abortion activist Mark Houck in the GOP primary. Fitzpatrick has become accustomed to primary battles, having successfully defended his position against conservative opponents ever since his election in 2016.
Fitzpatrick, a former FBI agent, has successfully established a bipartisan reputation, enabling him to retain his seat in a fiercely contested district in the Philadelphia suburbs, which President Joe Biden won in 2020. However, this year, Fitzpatrick and allied outside groups have taken to the airwaves to challenge Houck, indicating that they perceive him as a more significant adversary than Fitzpatrick has encountered in previous elections.
Next month, two other moderate House Republicans will face their primary challengers. These Republicans are Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, who represents a district that Biden won, and Representative Tony Gonzales of Texas.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House leadership, along with its nonprofit arm American Action Network, has also actively participated in these races by supporting all three Republican candidates.
In the highly competitive 2nd District of Bacon, the incumbent congressman will be going up against businessman Dan Frei in the state’s upcoming primary on May 14. Frei has managed to garner some grassroots support and even secured the endorsement of the Nebraska Republican Party back in January. It is worth noting that the state party refrained from endorsing any incumbents this year, as reported by the Nebraska Examiner.
In the vast 23rd District located in southwest Texas, where the Republican Party holds more influence, Gonzales will go head-to-head against Brandon Herrera in a runoff primary election on May 28. Herrera, who is recognized as a “Second Amendment activist” due to his popular YouTube channel, poses a formidable challenge. Gonzales faced criticism from conservatives when he backed a bipartisan gun control proposal in response to the tragic mass school shooting in Uvalde, a part of his district, in 2022. As a result, the state GOP issued a censure against him.
The Democrats are pleased with the early spending from the campaigns and supporters of Fitzpatrick, Bacon, and Gonzalez, as it could potentially drain their campaign accounts before the challenging November elections. Although these Republican incumbents have been difficult to defeat in the past, Democrats are hopeful that they can be beaten this year, but only if they succeed in their primaries.
Trump trial, Day 6: A witness details salacious stories and the judge bristles at gag order arguments
By Katherine Doyle
Testimony in the landmark hush money case involving Donald Trump resumed on Tuesday, as prosecutors strongly urged the court to hold the former president in contempt for his attacks on witnesses and others. In a significant development, David Pecker, the former tabloid impresario, took the stand once again and provided compelling details that connected Trump’s inner circle to a series of scandalous stories.
Day 6 of Trump’s trial witnessed a series of significant events.
Pecker took the stand once again. The former publisher of the National Enquirer shared details about giving instructions to carry out an agreement with Trump in order to support his 2016 campaign. Pecker admitted that the Enquirer published exaggerated stories about some of Trump’s rivals at the request of Michael Cohen. One such story involved a claim that Sen. Ted Cruz’s father was connected to the assassination of John F. Kennedy.
Pecker admitted that the article repeatedly cited by Trump during his campaign, which claimed to have merged photos of Lee Harvey Oswald and Cruz’s father, was completely fabricated.
The attorney for the district attorney’s office argued that Trump “seems to be angling” for incarceration by knowingly and repeatedly violating the gag order, but Merchan reserved judgment on the matter.
The prosecution had requested that Trump face contempt charges for his attacks on witnesses and other individuals involved in the case. They clarified that their intention was not to imprison him, but rather to impose fines for a minimum of 10 violations.
According to Trump lawyer Todd Blanche, they are making efforts to comply with the gag order. He emphasized that President Trump is exercising caution in this regard.
Judge Juan Merchan responded sharply, stating, “You’re losing all credibility with the court.”
Why Republicans — not Democrats — should be hoping for high turnout this fall
By Steve Kornacki
Donald Trump may have a slight lead of 2 points over Joe Biden in our most recent NBC News poll. However, there is a concerning factor for Trump to consider: he is depending on supporters who may not ultimately cast their votes in the upcoming November election.
When our pollsters cross-checked the respondents with voter registration information, they were able to determine which respondents actually participate in elections and how often they do so. Applying this information to the Biden-Trump race revealed some significant differences.
Trump’s strongest support comes from individuals who did not vote in either the 2022 midterm election or the 2020 presidential election, as evident from the data. Among those who voted in the 2020 election but skipped the midterm, Trump narrowly surpasses Biden. However, it is only among those who participated in both elections that Trump falls behind Biden.
In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, Trump demonstrated his ability to mobilize voters who are not typically politically active. These voters support Trump when he is running for office but show little interest in other Republican candidates. It is highly likely that a large majority of these voters will turnout for the upcoming election in the fall.
Presidential elections usually draw in many individuals who are not avid followers of politics or who are casting their vote for the first time. Therefore, if the voter turnout in November comes close to the historic level of 2020, where nearly 160 million votes were cast, it would likely indicate that those respondents who did not vote in either 2022 or 2020 are indeed participating this time. This turnout would be advantageous for Trump.
However, it is important to note that Trump should proceed with caution. In response to the question about their level of interest in this year’s election, 64% expressed a very high level of interest. Interestingly, this is the lowest level of interest we have observed in our poll at this stage of a presidential campaign since we first started asking the question in 2008.
Forecasting potential turnout disparities between each party’s base can be challenging at this stage, as it is still far from November. However, it is worth noting that President Trump is currently leading by 2 points among voters who express a high level of interest. This suggests the possibility of a lower turnout compared to the previous year’s elections.
Consider the potential challenge this could present for Trump by examining the consistently impressive showings of the Democratic Party in recent special elections. A notable example is the party’s impressive 8-point victory in the race to fill the vacant seat of former New York GOP Rep. George Santos in Long Island. This victory exceeded expectations and underscored the strong motivation of a significant portion of the Democratic base, specifically college-educated suburbanites.
Determined voters have consistently shown their resolve to vote against Trump and his party in every possible instance. Their fervor has proven to be a decisive factor in low-turnout events such as special elections. However, in a high-turnout scenario like the upcoming November elections, their impact may be somewhat diminished. It is important to note that the level of turnout in 2020 will directly affect the influence of these deeply committed voters.
The conventional wisdom is being overturned as Trump and the Republicans find themselves hoping for high turnout, marking a significant shift in the political landscape.
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